Market Prognosis

A concise summary of the major macro events of the past 24 hours, and selected UK company-specific news.

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November 9, 2023

All a bit deflationary

Macro & Overnight

China’s reported annual inflation rate for October was negative 0.2%. With oil prices falling, the world suddenly feels deflationary.

There are mixed messages from the Bank of England, with the Chief Economist suggesting rates could fall, being countered by Governor Bailey’s reiteration of higher for longer yesterday.

Fed Powell’s speech this evening should be interesting. The fear of recession has now replaced the fear of inflation for investors. It is not clear if the central bankers have got the memo yet.

The Bitcoin price has continued its recent rise and is now up 155% YTD. There is increasing speculation of a Bitcoin spot ETF.

Lower rates should be favourable for gold, where the price is stuck just below its all-time high, and also for Bitcoin, where the price remains 50% below its all-time high.

Prognosticator 

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