Market Prognosis

A concise summary of the major macro events of the past 24 hours, and selected UK company-specific news.

April 6, 2023

All change at the BoJ

Macro & Overnight

According to lender Halifax, UK house prices unexpectedly rose between February and March, with easing mortgage rates.

India’s central bank followed Australia and paused rate hikes as its economy shows signs of easing.

Meanwhile, New Zealand raised rates by 50 bps.

In Japan, BoJ Governor Karuda, the longest-serving central bank boss and QE’s first true believer, hands over to his unknown successor this weekend. A potentially seismic risk event for world financial markets if this heralds a change regarding Japan’s outlier monetary policy.

The Saudi Arabian and Iranian foreign ministers meet in Beijing, underscoring China’s growing influence in the Middle East. Previously these types of meetings would take place in Washington.

 

UK Company News

Gear4Music y/e update reported weaker consumer demand during February and March. Its second-hand trade-in system has launched with promising initial results. It has net debt of £14.5m, reduced from £24.2m. Gross margins will now be 25.7% (some 200bps lower y/y). (See our note here).

Motorpoint, the independent vehicle retailer, reported record revenue of c.£1,437m, up c.9%, helped by vehicle mix and price inflation. It expects to break even. Its balance sheet remains strong, with c.£5m cash at year-end. New car registrations rose 18% in March, benefiting the used vehicle supply. It expects to see continued market share gains. 

Prognosticator 

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