Market Prognosis

A concise summary of the major macro events of the past 24 hours, and selected UK company-specific news.

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April 29, 2024

Asian currency volatility

Macro

Investors are increasingly paying attention to the Aisia currency markets, particularly the weakening and increasingly volatile Chinese CNY and Japanese JPY. Concern is spreading that Asian central banks defending their currencies could destabilise the US bond market. 

China PMI data is on Tuesday this week, with expectations for a modest pickup above 50%. 

Also, this week, we get Euro Area GDP and inflation data, with expectations for modest economic growth and YoY EA inflation unchanged at 2.4% for April. 

Wednesday’s US JOLTS job openings are expected to be unchanged.

With a near-certain hold outcome, Thursday’s Fed rate decision will focus, as usual, on the post-match press conference and any hints regarding a change of tone.  

The headline-grabbing US non-farm payrolls on Friday are expected (as always ) to show a slowdown in hiring. This assessment, which will be right one day, might logically follow the slower-than-expected US GDP growth rate reported last week. 

UK Companies

The bidding war for Hipgnosis Songs notched up with Blackstone offering a “final” 104 per share, valuing the royalty fund at £1.3bn. 

DP Poland updated Q1 LFL system sales growth of 17.9% YoY in Poland, driven by a strong order count up 14.8% YoY. It said it is on a journey to deliver 200 stores by the end of 2026 and transition the business towards a franchise-led model. The update underpins confidence in opening additional corporate and franchisee stores. 

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