Market Prognosis

A concise summary of the major macro events of the past 24 hours, and selected UK company-specific news.

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November 4, 2022

Dove Hawk Spotted in Threadneedle St

Macro & Overnight

US equities fell 1.5% overnight. The tech-heavyweight NASDAQ underperformance continued with Apple and Alphabet both -4%. PayPal was -7% after hours, with Stripe and Twitter confirming staff lay-offs. Life is getting grim in Silicon Valley.

Asia was firmer on better performance from Chinese tech names. Rumours emerged that China was about to reverse its lockdown policy.

The BoE delivered the widely expected +75bp rate hike to 3.00%, its 8th successive increase.

Governor Bailey walked the tightrope of telling mortgage borrowers things won’t be as bad as the markets are pricing while also telling investors to buckle up for a two-year recession. The Times referred this to the ornithological discovery of the Dove Hawk bird.

The US labour market report later today looms as another potential market hurdle. Official jobs data is lagging, which might provide more ammo to shoot down any remaining Fed pivoter uprisings.

 

UK Company News

Sofa supplier DFS noted in its AGM update that “the upholstery market had softened markedly since April 2022.” [Full marks for this comment to the DFS IR/PR department wordsmiths]. However, somewhat more surprisingly, they have seen a more positive trend emerge since September, and they expect to hit the midpoint of their PBT guidance.

In other news from corporate PR, Alpha FX is to become Alpha Group, while Hill & Smith Holdings is to be henceforth known as just Hill & Smith.

Advanced carbon and ceramic materials producer Morgan’s Advanced Materials’ 3Q update guided full-year organic growth to be 7-9%, above previous guidance.

Inventory light promotional products supplier 4imprint delivered an unscheduled update, leading to the third upgrade since July. October year-to-date order counts in the primary North American business were up 32% over 2021. Revenue for October year to date is 40% higher than in 2021. Group profit before tax will be towards the top end of analysts’ forecasts and at least $90m. Its unique model is hoovering market share.

Local paper minnow National World is in the early stages of exploring a possible offer for the much larger Reach plc. This is all very early-stage stuff, but it could mark the return of industry veteran David Montgomery to the national newspaper industry.

 

PROGnosticator

 

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