Property & Construction Daily

The Property & Construction Daily provides a sector-specific comment from leading analyst Alastair Stewart. His daily perspective provides a round-up of market statements, news, economics and views from the property and construction sectors.

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October 6, 2023

Economy – House price decline slows, Halifax | Fortnight ahead

Economic data

House price. The pace of house M/M price declines reduced in September by 0.4% to £278,601, from -1.8% in August, while the annualised rate of decline edged up from -4.5% to -4.7%, according to the Halifax House Price Index. Although the sixth successive month of falls, both the M/M and Y/Y reductions were better than consensus expectations, at -0.8% and -5.0% respectively. Britain’s largest mortgage lender argues: “With the Base Rate now likely to be at or around its peak, we are seeing fixed rate mortgages deals ease back from recent highs. Wage growth also remains strong, which has helped with affordability, with the house price to income ratio (6.2x in September vs 6.3x in August) now at its lowest level since June 2020. House prices have proven more resilient than expected over that period, despite higher mortgage rates suppressing market activity. However, as we have highlighted previously, there is often a lag-effect between rate increases and the full impact of higher mortgage costs on house prices”. All regions registered a decline in house prices on an annual basis. Prices are under the greatest downward pressure in the South East (-5.7% to £376,450). Northern Ireland currently has the most resilient house prices (-0.2%, £184,108); Scotland (-0.8%, £201,594); Wales (-3.6%, £214,585). London remains the most expensive region (-4.8%, £525,678).

2023-10-06 Halifax House Price Index

Fortnight ahead

2023-10-06 Construction & Property company and economic news

Prices are as at the previous day’s close. Where quoted, net debt is pre-IFRS16 (excluding leases) unless otherwise stated.

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