Market Prognosis

A concise summary of the major macro events of the past 24 hours, and selected UK company-specific news.

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April 20, 2023

Holidays are a consumer priority

UK Company News

Evidence from Easyjet yesterday and Jet2 and WH Smith today is that consumers are prioritising holiday and leisure travel this year. It will be interesting to see how sustainable the trend is. 

Capital, the mining services company, updated that revenue was up 16.3% on Q1 2022 and a 1.6% decrease on Q4. Non-drilling revenue contributed 27%, and rig revenue per unit was $192,000 in Q1 2023, a 10.3% increase on Q1 2022. The result benefitted from the fleet repositioning strategy in the latter half of 2022, focusing away from shorter-term contracts favouring large-scale mine sites. Fleet utilisation was 77% in Q1 2023, compared to 82% in Q1 2022 and 73% in Q4 2022 MSALABS now has six units commissioned across Africa and Canada. Revenue guidance is unchanged. 

We didn’t get an update on the investment portfolio, but it should be in a good place, with the gold price at an all-time high. Capital is a founder-led business forging growth by partnering with large-scale mining projects in Africa. A “picks and shovels” play mining development in this critical continent with an improving revenue stream from its non-drilling services segment. 

DP Poland, Dominos Pizza franchise owner in Poland, updated that LFL System Sales1 increased by 19.4% in Q1 2023 compared to Q1 2022, driven by a recovery of the dine-in business (up 30.4%). Critically delivery times in Q1 2023 were five minutes faster than in Q1 2022, a 16% reduction in the average delivery time. Strong consumer inflation remained a headwind to sales growth in Q1 2023, though LFL order counts increased year on year. Inflationary pressures on food costs, energy and labour have continued the trend from last year and stayed strong over Q1 2023. However, food price rises are beginning to abate, with some food costs expected to drop throughout Q2 2023, which should support EBITDA progression from the levels seen in 2022.

The fundamentals for the Polish economy remain very strong. A proven operator is now leading DP Poland. The critical metric is delivery time. But other optimisation work is also required. 

IG Design issued an update. See note here for details. 

Jet2, the airline and package holiday provider, now expects to report a profit ac 3% above prior guidance. Forward bookings to date remain encouraging. Pricing for package holiday and flight-only products remains strong, and margins per booked passenger are encouraging, with customers eager to take their much-valued holidays. Jet2 says it is too early to provide definitive guidance regarding FY profitability.

WANDisco is under FCA investigation. 

Volution has made bolt-on acquisitions in Slovenia and France. acquisitions 

WHSmith reported that H1 trading is ahead of expectations. 

Capita has restored access to Microsoft Office 365 following a cyber incident announced earlier in April.

Prognosticator 

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