Market Prognosis

A concise summary of the major macro events of the past 24 hours, and selected UK company-specific news.

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January 31, 2023

IMF raises global growth estimates

Macro & Overnight

The IMF report on the global economy has raised expectations for global growth based on China’s reopening and falling inflation.

The fiscal medicine inflicted on the UK in the aftermath of the Kwarteng minibudget fiasco means that UK headlines will focus on the IMF projections that the UK economy is the only major economy expected to see negative growth in 2023. What this misses is that the UK’s estimated growth in 2022 at 4.1% will be higher than any other economy the IMF forecasts except India, Saudi Arabia and Spain. Indeed over the two years from 2022-23, the IMF estimates that the UK economy will grow by 3.5%. This estimate is less than the average of the major advanced economies of 3.9%. As ever, these forecasts are subject to significant revision. Maybe the UK was forced to take its fiscal medicine ahead of others.

Oil prices fell sharply overnight as fears over higher rates as we approach central bank decisions overwhelmed the impact of China’s reopening.

 

UK Company News

Accesso Technology, the technology solutions provider for attractions and venues, continues to anticipate a robust operating performance in line with previously raised guidance. As a result, the Group’s net cash position was approximately $64m. 

The logistics provider DX updated H1 performance in line with the Board’s expectations, with revenue approximately 15% ahead of last year. The pipeline of new business opportunities remains strong, and the company is well-positioned to meet its expectations for the year. 

Impact Healthcare REIT, the UK care home investor, reported a lower NAV of 110p per share. This move represents a reduction of 5.5% over six months. Net Initial Yield was 6.98%, an upward movement of 30 basis points over the quarter due to changes in yields across the real estate sector primarily driven by increases in interest rates during 2022. Loan to value was 24%, and rent cover was just over 1.8x. Occupancy was slightly lower at 86.6% but in line with expected seasonal fluctuations. 13 tenants manage impact’s 133 care homes on fixed-term leases of 20 to 35 years without break clauses and subject to annual upward-only Retail Price Index-linked rent reviews. Impact offers investors a well-protected 6% dividend yield. 

Instem IT, which provides solutions to the global life sciences market, expects full-year profit in line with market expectations. Note here.

RBG, the legal and professional services Group, announced significant executive changes, including the immediate departure of the CEO. The company reassured that FY22 revenue and operating profit are expected to align with consensus market expectations. Several potential offers have been evaluated for LionFish, and further updates will be provided.

Ricardo, the strategic, environmental, and engineering consulting company, said that overall trading aligns with the Board’s expectations, with good revenue and underlying profit growth. The Group’s guidance for the year remains unchanged.

Somero, the US-based building machinery company, said its revenue expectation is now modestly below previous guidance, reflecting the impact of supply chain shortages. The Board expects 2023 will be a highly profitable year with healthy cash generation, revenues comparable to 2022, and EBITDA reflecting the planned investment to add strategic resources for future growth.

Uniphar, the Dublin-based healthcare services business, said it performed in line with the Group’s expectations for 2022 at both a gross profit and EBITDA level. It has delivered free cash flow conversion above medium-term guidance. Its medium-term organic gross profit growth targets at a divisional level are unchanged. M&A will continue to play an essential role in Uniphar’s growth strategy. The Group continues to have a disciplined approach to capital allocation while managing an active pipeline of acquisition opportunities. 

Wickes said it expects full-year adjusted PBT to align with current market expectations.

Prognosticator 

 

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