Market Prognosis

A concise summary of the major macro events of the past 24 hours, and selected UK company-specific news.

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November 3, 2023

Jobs, who needs them when the market is going up!

Macro & Overnight

It was no surprise that the Bank of England followed the Fed’s lead and paused rates for a second month. Nor that equity markets, taking their lead from lower bond yields, moved decisively to a risk-on mode, delivering a welcome bounce in stock markets.

Nor was it surprising that the top-performing UK sectors were the RIETS, housebuilders and other recently bombed-out stocks, often indebted and threatened with their future existence by the idea of higher and longer.

We are at a moment when the market debris floats to the surface. 

The real question for investors is how much of this was short-covering and how much was new investment flows. And the answer is it is too early to know. 

However, it is nice to know that share prices can go up as well as down; who knew?   

The best news investors can hope for is a lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls number and a sharply higher unemployment rate from the US later today.  

If Elon Musk is right, there won’t be any jobs soon anyway. 

Prognosticator 

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