Market Prognosis

A concise summary of the major macro events of the past 24 hours, and selected UK company-specific news.

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November 8, 2022

China trade patterns

Overnight & Macro

Chinese trade data showed that both imports and exports fell last month for the first time since March 2020.

However, persistent rumours remain that the CCP is considering moving to end its zero-COVID policy.

Apple has reported supply delays from China.

China has now overtaken the EU as Russia’s largest trading partner.

Following Olaf Scholz’s trade mission to China, much frowned upon by the White House, there is a new emerging ruction between Europe and the US over the trans-Atlantic LNG trade amid accusations of profiteering from both sides.

Emerging heating oil and natural gas shortages in New England means that this could develop into an economically sensitive dispute as Northern Hemisphere temperatures fall.

Global energy prices remain firm despite the impending recession, Chinese lockdowns, unseasonably warm weather in Europe and an unwinding of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

A hundred climate activists blocked the runway at Schipol airport yesterday, preventing several private jets from taking off for Sharm El Sheikh. At least this partially mitigated this week’s Egyptian air traffic control issues.

The guessing game continues ahead of the UK’s Nov 17th budget. The £11bn cost to keep the manifesto “triple lock” pledge by keeping entitlements in line with inflation implies savings elsewhere. What will tomorrow bring? Today the FT focuses on inheritance tax thresholds.

UK Company News

Oxford Instruments, the provider of high-technology products and systems, reported a record order book and guided inline. 

General insurer Direct Line reported a weakening trend in gross written premium, particularly in its motor book.

National housebuilder Persimmon cautioned that its cancellation rate has increased. The main debate among investors is whether the downgrades coming in this sector have already been discounted in the valuations yet.  

Aveva guided inline despite cost increases. The company expects to benefit from a positive H2 weighting and a strong dollar. 

Zoo Digital, a provider of cloud-based localisation to the entertainment industry, expects the full-year outcome to align with market expectations. Progressive Equity Note Here.  

North Sea oil producer Ithica Energy has issued IPO pricing guidance. IPO? Are you sure? 

Britvic CFO leaves to join WPP.

Argentex, the international provider of foreign exchange services, expects its full-year performance to exceed current market expectations. 

Hilton Food, the multi-protein food business, reported volume and revenue per the Board’s expectations. However, inflationary headwinds mean the company now anticipates that operating profit will be below expectations for the year. Another warning from a company previously renowned for its “beat and raise” performances.  

Marks Electrical, the online electrical retailer, reported accelerated revenue growth in October and a solid start to November. The company considers itself to be well-positioned to achieve full-year targets. Marks is an interesting niche player competing against heavyweights Currys and AO World

 

Prognosticator

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