Market Prognosis

A concise summary of the major macro events of the past 24 hours, and selected UK company-specific news.

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January 29, 2024

Policy rate decision week at Fed & BoE

Macro & Overnight

This week, we get interest rate decisions from the Fed (Wednesday) and the BoE (Thursday). While markets chomp at the bit for lower rates, none expect any moves lower until March, at the earliest.

Additionally, we get EA inflation data and US payroll data, both important gauges for policymakers to ponder.

But just as the data reflect progress in the fight against inflation, oil prices and the dollar display ominous early risk indicators for the price cycle to return.

The widening scope of the Middle East conflict is concerning, but for now, at least, it remains regionally contained without the scale of the global supply chain disruptions that resulted from the lockdown nor the disruption to energy supplies caused by the invasion of Ukraine. However, escalation risks cannot be ignored.

UK Company News

Accesso, the visitor attraction systems provider, updated that it achieved 2023 profit expectations while investing in next-generation products. Positive early results from its most recent acquisitions will help revenue growth of approximately 9% and margin improvement in 2024. 

Chrysalis, the private equity trust, said that its portfolio contains several companies moving into a window where an exit is possible. The recent market strength – triggered by yields falling in response to better inflation data – should be considered encouraging. It said that a backdrop of more optimistic markets should increase the possibility of exits for the Company’s investments. 

Inspecs updated that financial performance is below the market expectations due to softer trading in December without much further explanation, but one might assume consumer trading down is at play. 

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Any prices quoted in our research are as at the previous day’s close.