Market Prognosis

A concise summary of the major macro events of the past 24 hours, and selected UK company-specific news.

October 27, 2023

Soft landing?

Macro & Overnight

US GDP and durable goods demand continue to indicate a strong US economy. However, the quarterly PCE data showed that inflationary pressures are being contained. The focus will move to the September PCE inflation data later today. The market expects a slight slowdown from 3.7% to 3.6% in the year-on-year measure, indicating a possible US soft landing.

With the ECB joining the central bank holding pattern on rate increases and Christine Lagarde citing tensions in the Middle East as a factor, bond investors continue to take over the job of tightening as global bond yields continue to edge higher. However, the benchmark US 10-year rate continues to shy away from the 5% level.

Oil prices firmed as US air strikes were reported in Syria. However, as long as its allies can persuade Israel from an all-out land invasion of Gaza, hope remains that the conflict can be contained to a regional level.

Prognosticator

This communication is provided for information purposes only, and is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite securities or units. Investors should seek advice from an Independent Financial Adviser or regulated stockbroker before making any investment decisions. Progressive Equity Research Ltd (“PERL”) does not make investment recommendations.

Opinions contained in this communication represent those of PERL and/or our affiliates at the time of publication and PERL does not undertake to provide updates to any opinions or views expressed. PERL does not hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this communication, however, PERL’s directors, officers, employees, contractors and affiliates may hold a position,  and/or may perform services or solicit business from, any of the companies or related securities mentioned.

Any prices quoted in our research are as at the previous day’s close.