Market Prognosis

A concise summary of the major macro events of the past 24 hours, and selected UK company-specific news.

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November 24, 2023

UK consumer in better shape

Macro & Overnight

US investors are enjoying their holiday break as the ceasefire in Gaza started with hopes of hostage releases later today.

UK measures of consumer sentiment and spending look better than feared.

As measured by GfK, UK consumer confidence is improving, albeit bumping along the bottom at -24 for November versus -28 in October.

ASDA’s survey of consumer residual ‘spending’ power (hardly ever mentioned in mainstream media) was up 12% in October, the strongest growth rate over two years – driven by falling inflation (now 4.6%) and growing real wages (c.7%).

Japan’s inflation rate notched up from 3% to 3.3%, a figure most countries would celebrate, but with negative interest rates, things are different in Japan.

German GDP growth has moved from an annualised 0.1% in Q2 to -0.4% in Q3.

Oil prices stabilised at lower levels, with the Brent benchmark at $81, as OPEC+ stability is under scrutiny following the cancellation of its weekend meeting. The suggestions are that far from being prepared to share Saudi Arabia’s pain of production cuts, smaller producers, such as Angola and Nigeria, are seeking quota increases. With major oil-consuming economies like Germany slowing down, there is a risk that oil will break down below its established trading range.

Sweden has just reported its sixth consecutive month of negative producer prices. For much of Europe, a deflationary recession has overtaken inflation as the main fear.

Prognosticator

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