Market Prognosis

A concise summary of the major macro events of the past 24 hours, and selected UK company-specific news.

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June 21, 2024

UK consumer recovers

Macro

UK retail sales were stronger than expected in May, with a 2.9% m/m increase in sales volumes (consensus 1.5%), fully reversing the 1.8% m/m drop in April.

GfK consumer confidence index rose from -17 in May to -14 in June, its highest level for two and a half years.

Strengthening real income growth, now inflation is back at target, is feeding through to improved spending.

If inflation behaves and wage pressure is contained, the UK should join the rate-cutting cycle in August.

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