Market Prognosis

A concise summary of the major macro events of the past 24 hours, and selected UK company-specific news.

September 20, 2023

UK inflation lower than expected

Macro & Overnight

UK inflation rate fell last month, with headline CPI up 6.7%, less than the 6.8% gain the month before and below the 7% expected.

UK core inflation fell further to 6.2% from 6.9%. The chart below illustrates that the UK continues to follow the US inflation cycle with a 3-4 month lag.

In the past few weeks, the UK has had a larger GDP and lower underlying inflation rate than expected.

Unsurprisingly, the £ is weaker on lowered expectations for rate hikes, and the UK market is opening up strongly.

Screenshot 2023-09-20 083420

UK Company News

Capital, the mining services company, has announced a three-year comprehensive drilling services contract with Nevada Gold Mines, which will generate annualised run rate revenues of ~$35 million once all the rigs are fully operational. Capex of ~$20 million is required, predominantly falling in 2024. Capital has focused on large-scale mine sites and Tier-1 projects with significant growth potential.

IQGeo has announced a significant new contract with an existing customer, a top five global wholesale fibre network provider with operations in the US and Europe with a software ACV value of $400,000 pa and a total contract value over three years of $1.9 million. 

Judges Scientific reported that H1 revenue increased by 16.5%, and order intake was up 14%. It should meet FY market expectations.

Warpaint sales increased by 46% to £36.7m in H1 with EBITDA of £7.9m (H1 2022: £4.4m). It sees significant opportunities for continued growth, both already secured with our existing retailers and in discussion with addition other retailers globally.

Wincanton’s pension scheme showed an actuarial surplus of £3.9m, compared to an actuarial deficit of £154m this year. No further contributions are currently payable into the scheme, significantly improving the Group’s free cash flow.  

Finsbury Foods has agreed to a PE offer of £134m, a 24% premium.  


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