Market Prognosis

A concise summary of the major macro events of the past 24 hours, and selected UK company-specific news.

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February 14, 2024

UK inflation print better than expected

Macro News 

UK and US data indicates the path to lower rates will be challenging and slow. The so-called “final mile” to 2% is causing concern.  

US inflation data was higher than expected yesterday, prompting weakness in equity markets, higher bond yields and a stronger dollar, which is not a good set-up for risk assets. 

UK inflation data today is more benign than the US and broadly as expected, albeit better than most feared. Producer price data, often seen as a lead indicator for headline inflation, came in below expectations at the input level, indicating the UK is importing deflation.  

The reality is that the UK is behind the US in dealing with the inflationary impact, particularly in energy costs. While markets are understandably nervous, the underlying trend remains disinflationary.

UK Company News 

Bloomsbury stated that its revenue and profits will be significantly ahead of upgraded market expectations due to increasing demand for fantasy fiction. It highlights the work of its author, Sarah J. Maas. 

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