Market Prognosis

A concise summary of the major macro events of the past 24 hours, and selected UK company-specific news.

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February 13, 2024

Weak natural gas prices underpin lower inflation

Oil prices have firmed, but natural gas prices remain very weak, particularly in the US, where following Biden’s pledge not to allow any more LNG export facilities in the Gulf, domestic prices have plummeted.

This trend provides a positive backdrop to underlying inflation.

Bond yields continue to rise, with both US and UK 10-yr benchmark yields above 4% for the first time since early December.

Political and geopolitical concerns around higher issuance are likely driving yields.

Bitcoin has recovered from the sell-off after the ETF launches to $50,000, a level not seen since March 2021. Estimates suggest the “halvening” moment when the issue rate of new coins halves again will be April 17th, a time of rapid price appreciation in previous cycles.

Let’s see how the FT explains it away, should it happen.

The UK unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in December, versus 3.9% the previous month and expectations of a rise to 4%.

Focus now turns to the US inflation data due at 1.30 pm UK time.

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