Market Prognosis

A concise summary of the major macro events of the past 24 hours, and selected UK company-specific news.

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September 26, 2023

Yields push higher despite policy rate pauses

Macro & Overnight

The dominant macro concern remains rising US Treasury yields.

Following rate pauses last week, investors are holding their breath as concerns rise regarding the potential collateral damage to the economy if rates are higher for longer.

Data this week include US GDP (Thursday), Eurozone inflation (Friday), and US durable goods orders (tomorrow).

UK Company News

Diaceutics, a commercialisation partner for pharma launching precision medicines with 21 of the top 30 global pharma companies as customers, reported 32% H1 revenue growth in revenue and reaffirmed its FY outlook. It also reported a 66% growth in recurring revenues and an order book growth of 43% to £24.1m. It said it continues to see strong demand from new customers and renewals of its insight and engagement solutions, leading to order book growth and increases in recurring revenue. Its founder CEO is stepping back into a corporate development role.

For background, listen to Peter Keeling, Diaceutics’ CEO, here

Learning Tech reported H1 revenues up 2% to £284.6m, with EBIT slightly down by 1%. Good cash performance and deleveraging supporting a planned voluntary debt repayment of $25m. Resilience in SaaS and long-term contracts, offset by lower transactional volumes in line with the broader macroeconomic environment and lower demand in GP Strategies, notably in China. Its performance is expected to be in line with analyst estimates.

Supreme updated that it now expects trading for the year ended 31 March 2024 to be significantly ahead of market expectations with revenue guidance of around £195 – £205 million and Adjusted EBITDA2 guidance of approximately £28 – 30 million, an increase of £3.5 million compared to the market expectations1, with around £2 million of the incremental Adjusted EBITDA2 arising from the Elf opportunity and around £1.5 million incremental Adjusted EBITDA2 arising from the core business.

EKF Diagnostics reported that trading is in line with Board expectations and provided revised guidance for the FY performance. First customer orders were received for the new South Bend facility, with the official site opening planned for 25 October 2023. It said it looked forward to delivering strong growth in enzyme fermentation revenues in 2024.

ASOS updated that sales declined 15% YoY. Adjusted H2 EBIT was up more than 100% year-on-year (“YoY”), and H2 cashflow improved by c.£140m with inventory down c.30% YoY due to its pivot to a faster stock model. FY EBIT is expected around the bottom of the guided £40m to £60m range, with free cash inflow in H2 now expected to be c.£60m (previously £150m).  

DP Poland, the Dominos’ franchise owner for Poland and Croatia, said Poland’s revenue increased by 21.0% to £20.1m (H1 2022: £16.6m). Poland system sales increased by 14.9% to PLN 108.1m (H1 2022: PLN 94.1m). Group loss before tax improved from £(2.2)m for H1 2022 to £(1.6)m for H1 2023. Cash at the bank was £2.7m as of 30 June 2023 (£1.7m). Average delivery times were reduced by 13.0% in H1 2023, improving Net Promoter Scores and customer satisfaction. July and August saw Polish LFL sales grow by 10.6% and 17.3%, respectively, compared to 2022. It expects to deliver a solid performance in Q3 and to align with expectations for Q4. 

Prognosticator 

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