Did the AI Look-Through Trade Just Crack? A HyperNormal Situation Report
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Did the AI Look-Through Trade Just Crack?
Broadcom beat consensus but dropped 13% on after-hours trading. CrowdStrike fell 10%. The Kospi crashed 7% intraday on Friday. The bar for AI stocks has moved beyond the trajectory — and the marginal buyer is starting to notice.
Jeremy walks through six interconnected stories shaping the next phase of markets:
— Why Broadcom's "miss" of less than 0.4% triggered a global tech selloff, even good numbers are no longer enough
— Hezbollah's rejection of the US-brokered Lebanon ceasefire and what the Hormuz dark-tanker dynamic means for sustained $100+ oil
— The Fed's openly hawkish pivot from Daly and Schmid ahead of Kevin Warsh's first FOMC on June 16-17
— The 1997-echo currency stress across Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, India and Japan — and why China is emerging as the regional safe haven
— SpaceX's $1.75 trillion IPO on June 12, S&P Dow Jones refusing to bend index rules, and what the inelastic markets hypothesis means for the AI-IPO supercycle
— Why private credit underwriting standards are tightening and what that signals about late-cycle leverage
Jeremy closes with four themes for the coming weeks: the AI guidance trajectory, the Fed pivot, the structural energy regime, and the IPO supply event. Position for volatility. Reduce concentration in mega-cap tech. Watch the dollar against the yen and the rupee. Don't fall for the diplomatic theatre.
Catalyst calendar: ECB rate decision (June 11) | SpaceX IPO debut (June 12) | FOMC + BoJ meetings (June 16-17) | Makerfield by-election (June 18) | US core PCE (June 25)
Mentioned in this episode: Broadcom, CrowdStrike, Nvidia, SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, Cliffwater, Partners Group, Blackstone | Mary Daly, Jeff Schmid, Isabel Schnabel, Kevin Warsh | The inelastic markets hypothesis (Gabaix & Koijen), Rob Arnott & Lillian Wu on passive distortion
Find Jeremy at: HyperNormalTimes on Substack
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