Kevin Muir (The Macro Tourist) on the End of US Exceptionalism, the Fed's Bluff, and Why AI Is an Earnings Bubble, Not a Price Bubble
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Kevin Muir has spent thirty-five years making — and cataloguing — mistakes in markets, first as an equity derivatives trader on RBC Capital Markets' Toronto desk through the dot-com era, and for the last twenty-five years trading his own capital independently. Along the way, he built The Macro Tourist into one of the most widely read independent macro newsletters, and co-founded The Market Huddle podcast with Patrick Ceresna.
In this conversation, Kevin lays out his current framework for markets: why being right about a call and making a good investment are two different things, how his own conversion on Modern Monetary Theory reshaped the way he reads fiscal and monetary policy, and why he thinks the US is losing the structural advantage that made it the best-performing stock market on earth for the better part of two decades. We get into his read on Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve, his currency trade expressing a long-yen view, and his scepticism of the AI capex boom — not because the technology won't matter, but because of how the earnings behind it are being built.
Keywords / Tags: Kevin Muir, The Macro Tourist, Market Huddle podcast, macro investing, Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve, US dollar, US stock market outlook, Japanese yen trade, Swiss franc, AI bubble, earnings bubble, gold, Modern Monetary Theory, fiscal dominance, US midterm elections 2026, hedge fund psychology, trading discipline
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