Supply is Measurable, Demand is Storytelling & Why the World's Capital Out of Whack – Capital Cycle Investing with Django Davidson
Are we over-indexed on the "Digital Masters of the Universe" while starving the physical supply chains that underpin national security?
In this episode, we dive into why global capital might be facing the wrong direction. We’re joined by Django Davidson, Partner and Portfolio Manager at Hosking Partners, to explore the Capital Cycle Theory—an investment framework made famous by Marathon Asset Management and financial historian Edward Chancellor.
While most of Wall Street obsesses over uncertain future demand, the Capital Cycle approach focuses on the one thing we can track: Supply.
In this episode, we discuss:
- The Mag Seven vs. Physical Reality: Why the chronic underinvestment in critical infrastructure is creating a massive valuation gap.
- The Chancellor Doctrine: Understanding why return on capital—driven by industry competition—is the ultimate north star for share prices.
- The Return of the Cycle: How the current market mirrors the dot-com boom/bust and why we are in the early phases of a long-term capital rotation.
- Supply over Demand: Why analysing where capital is flowing (or fleeing) is more effective than chasing quarterly earnings.
Django breaks down the "huge valuation discrepancies" waiting to unwind and why the next decade of investing won’t look anything like the last.
Brought to you by Progressive Equity.
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