Week ending 08/11/24 – Tectonic shifts – both sides of the pond
This week, Gareth is joined by Alastair Stewart, Progressive's Building & Construction analyst.
The main topic of discussion is obviously the US election, the initial market relief at the quick result, and market hopes for a capital-friendly and economically successful second Trump term. The benefits of "drill, baby, drill" vs the pain of tariffs and removal of large pools of low-cost labour (illegal migrants) from the US economy ...the jury is still out, and may be out for some time.
Meanwhile, although both the Bank of England and the US Fed lowered rates by the expected 25 basis points on Thursday, the mood music from both was more muted in terms of the path to future cuts.
Gareth talks through recent results from Progressive clients DP Poland and Secure Trust Bank, and Alastair discusses the UK Budget's impact on the building sector - with the big winners being housebuilders and infrastructure players as "capital investment" of £100bn over five years will make its way into the sector. The downsides mainly relate to the Employer's National Insurance rise, with a 'triple whammy' of pain for the sector.
Next week should be quieter, with US CPI data on Wednesday the main economic highlight of the calendar.
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