Week Ending 10/01/2025 – We’re already on the wrong end of “The Art of The Deal”
As we kick off 2025, Jeremy and Gareth discuss the impact of Donald Trump's rhetoric (and eventual actions) and the reality that destabilising the world works for Trump in two ways: his eventual arrival and "resolution" of many of these Trump-created pressures will be seen as a great "deal" for him to celebrate, and in the meantime the disarray will lead to a flight to safety, which is (to date) the US Dollar. So Trump is exporting inflation (and pain) to the already-pressured markets of Europe, China and Japan.
In terms of the UK, our "safe and stable" position feels a bit less safe and a lot less stable with public finances in the spotlight and rising long-term yields. Jeremy has a suggestion for how to find and position a portfolio for these markets.
Next week, we have UK inflation and GDP data, US inflation and a number of China stats.
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