Week ending 18/10/24 – China risks deflation, the US risks reflation
This week Jeremy and Gareth discuss events in Gaza and Israel, with oil prices lower as the risk of an attack on Iranian oil facilities has reduced, and the death of the Hamas leader could even open the fabled "path to peace". Meanwhile, even as energy prices dip, datacentre owners Google, Microsoft and Amazon are buying nuclear power capacity to avoid any risk of interruption to AI availability.
The UK has seen inflation fall to within the target range, with unemployment lower than expected....Sterling fell back against the dollar as interest rate expectations decline. Retail spending has been strong - as maybe the feelgood factor is returning. The Government's 10-year plan published today highlights almost every sector (except mining and oil & gas) as "growth". Meanwhile, the US government continues to pile on debt, and China is seeing house price declines which even a powerful "Beijing bazooka" might struggle to reverse.
The Progressive clients with news were Thruvision, Sanderson Design Group and Vertu Motors...all seeing tough conditions in different areas, and all trying to find and exploit the pockets of growth and stability.
Next week - nothing of note! Last time we said that though, the Japanese market collapsed and the USD/Yen carry trade hit the headlines for all the wrong reasons...
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