Week Ending 20/12/2024 – Is the Trump Trade over and will Xi attend Donald’s party?
This week, Jeremy and Gareth discuss Jay Powell spoiling the Santa Rally, indicating that rates might not fall as far as he previously said, sending the US $ soaring and risk assets into a tailspin. Is this the end of the Trump Trade? Maybe, and perhaps not a bad thing for the UK market. The DXY index is the gauge of how this might play out.
In the UK, higher inflation is partly driven by higher wage settlements, which running at twice inflations rate unsurprisingly led to the BOE decision to keep rates on hold this month. Stubborn inflation is a feature of both sides of the Atlantic.
In the UK, the 10-year gilt yields are at levels not previously seen for over 20 years, surpassing the Truss tantrum level of two years ago.
In other news, Japan kept its rates on hold, and China needs to stimulate further but is playing a waiting game. Putin suggests he is prepared to meet Trump, and the incoming US administration has shown it is prepared to play hardball over the debt ceiling brinkmanship, threatening to close the government down over the holiday break.
In company news, Gareth discusses a major contract win for Idox, and Petro Matad's progress and improving outlook for 2025.
Jeremy shares an update on his painful investment in Artisanal Spirits. Gareth suggests how the company might crystallise some of its unrealised value. Watch out for President Xi bringing a premium bottle of malt whisky for Donald Trump as his inauguration present next month!
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to both our listeners; you know who you are!
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