Week Ending 22/08/2025 – Will Jay Powell stand and fight or roll over and cut?
This week has been relatively quiet. Gareth and Jeremy discuss the prospects for peace in Europe, the not quite so bad news, but still not good news, about the UK economy and our public finances.
UK inflation and the long end of the gilt market both look like they might be getting out of control. UK inflation has now been above target for 49 out of the last 51 reports. Not conventionally a scenario in which to cut rates, unless, of course, it is transitory.
Jeremy talks about the significance of Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole later today (3 pm UK time) and asks whether he is prepared to die on the hill of inflation and central bank independence.
Gareth then highlights the dramatic warning and share price reaction from WHSmith this week and its potential implications.
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