Week Ending 28 March 2025 – Not balancing the books, and when do “trade wars” become “capital wars”?
This week, Jeremy and Gareth discuss some home truths about the UK economy - Rachel Reeves has reassured bond investors for now, but the low-growth stubborn-inflation structural problems persist.
Ironically, Trump's erratic tariff-wielding tactics could drive capital AWAY from the USA, to the benefit of China, Germany and even the UK equity market.
And this week, a couple of UK stocks with "reasonable" news - Xaar and SRT Marine - saw 25%+ price moves suggesting that many stocks are priced for pessimism. Gamma Communications delivered a solid 2024, and we think investors are more wary than they should be of German expansion.
Next week sees Chinese confidence data, European inflation and crucially US jobs...as well as 2 April seeing Trump's tariffs (probably....) come into effect.
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